NBK Wealth Thought Leadership: The US Elections 2024: Game Changer or No Change at All?
On the fiscal policy side, we believe that in either sweep scenario a higher fiscal deficit is very likely. However, the composition of the deficit would vary between higher spending (Democratic sweep) or lower taxes (Republican sweep). Furthermore, an incrementally larger deficit is expected to occur under a Republican sweep. In general, however, fiscal policy changes will take time to materialize as looser conditions would cause short-term growth to be boosted alongside upside pressure on inflation and interest rates. Overall, the impact may end up negatively affecting global growth. Three factors might cause the effects of policy changes to be felt only from 2026 onward: